We’re mid-way through one of the weirdest World Series I’ve ever seen and the Mets rumor mill is at its LOLMetsiest. And I realize that people need to write daily to keep their jobs, but some of this stuff is flat out ridiculous.
I don’t have a specific offseason plan for you. I can’t tell you to trade this prospect for that one. Or how to make certain three-way trades. But what I can tell you is that I think the Mets will have an $80 to $90 million payroll next year and they have multiple slots to fill.
The only guys who are truly slotted in for next year are Wright and Wheeler. d’Arnaud, Murphy, Parnell, Niese, and Gee should all be on the team too. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re packaged and traded for prospects either. Then you’ve got the tenders: Duda, Davis, Tejada, Turner, Satin, etc.; who will all get contracts. The only ones who shouldn’t are Quintanilla and Atchison. But everyone in that group could get moved in the right trades.
Though I’m not predicting anything, I could see the Mets make a trade for a guy like Peter Bourgos. Or signing a Jhonny Peralta type free agent. But what I absolutely don’t see is trading the farm for Troy Tulowitski. Or taking on 10 years of Robinson Cano, regardless of the price. Or going back after Jose Reyes for his triumphant (and expensive) return.
GMs have learned a lot about contracts in the past few years. Long term, high average annual value deals, do not work out for any team. Players get hurt and there are few players in the farm system who can truly take over because that star is a “given”. Teams with lower budgets are are locking up their young talent at “discount” salaries and not letting them get to free agency. So the way forward is the way that’s always been there. Draft well and sign free agents to fill the holes.
If you can afford to re-sign a home grown talent like a David Wright, you do it. But you don’t take him on a 10 year, $200 million deal to come to a new city and perform like he’s 25. it’s just not going to happen. You take that $20 million per year and bring in multiple players with a .325 OBP and 15 home runs. Those players won’t cost you a draft pick, which is especially important now that slot is tied to the maximum budget a team can spend before they face a penalty. The trick is drafting well, which is easier said than done.